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The divergence between the models’ predictions in 1990 (Fig. 3), on the one hand, and the observed outturn, on the other, continues to widen.
If the Pause lengthens just a little more, the rate of warming in the quarter-century since the IPCC’s in 1990 will fall below 1 C°/century equivalent. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] K/century, made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990), for the 309 months January 1990 to September 2015 (orange region and red trend line), vs.
The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the GISS, Had CRUT4 and NCDC terrestrial monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly datasets shows global warming at a rate equivalent to 1.1 C° per century during the period of the Pause from January 1997 to September 2015.
However, the much-altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate (Fig. Bearing in mind that one-third of the 2.4 W m radiative forcing from all manmade sources since 1750 has occurred during the period of the Pause, a warming rate equivalent to little more than 1 C°/century is not exactly alarming. Merely because there has been little or no warming in recent decades, one may not draw the conclusion that warming has ended forever.
One-third of Man’s entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since February 1997.
Yet the 225 months since then show no global warming at all.
The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated.The steepness of this predicted response can be seen in Fig.1a, which is based on a paper on temperature feedbacks by Professor Richard Lindzen’s former student Professor Gerard Roe in 2009.The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming.
But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 18 years 9 months since February 1997, not a flicker of warming has resulted. At the Heartland and Philip Foster events in Paris, I shall reveal in detail the three serious errors that have led the models to over-predict warming so grossly.
On the questioners’ side it is rational: on the believers’ side it is a matter of increasingly blind faith.